Output Projections for Maize in Nigeria (2015 - 2030), Implication on its Importation

Abstract

This study analyzed the trend of maize output in Nigeria, in order to make estimates and forecast for future production. Time series data for a period of twenty years (1995-2014) were collected from secondary sources and the analytical tools used were descriptive statistics, Ordinary Least Square regression model, and Simple Growth Rate Supply Model. Results indicate that there was a general rise in maize output in Nigeria from 2001-2006 after which a sharp decrease was recorded in 2007. The period, 2008-2011 witnessed another general rise in the quantity of maize supply. The trend in maize production in Nigeria had been on the increase but at a very slow pace. Producer price of maize and per capital supply of maize in the previous year were positively signed and significant at 10%. The supply projection indicates that the quantity of maize supply in Nigeria will increase from 7748 thousand metric tones in 2015 to 11043 thousand metric tones in 2030. However, there was a decline in the growth rate. This projected figure calls for policies that would encourage maize farmers to increase the area of land put under maize cultivation and improve their productivity. Foreign and local investors should capitalize on the suitable land and readily available market by investing massively in maize production and its industrial value addition in Nigeria.